Recent research (N = 9,305) underscores the importance of using age-stratified actuarial tables in sex offender risk assessments.

نویسندگان

  • Richard Wollert
  • Elliot Cramer
  • Jacqueline Waggoner
  • Alex Skelton
  • James Vess
چکیده

A useful understanding of the relationship between age, actuarial scores, and sexual recidivism can be obtained by comparing the entries in equivalent cells from "age-stratified" actuarial tables. This article reports the compilation of the first multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates, referred to as the "multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates (MATS-1)," from recent research on Static-99 and another actuarial known as the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale. The MATS-1 validates the "age invariance effect" that the risk of sexual recidivism declines with advancing age and shows that age-restricted tables underestimate risk for younger offenders and overestimate risk for older offenders. Based on data from more than 9,000 sex offenders, our conclusion is that evaluators should report recidivism estimates from age-stratified tables when they are assessing sexual recidivism risk, particularly when evaluating the aging sex offender.

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عنوان ژورنال:
  • Sexual abuse : a journal of research and treatment

دوره 22 4  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2010